The Great Marketing Illusion: Are You Paying for Customers You Already Had?
If you’re running a business in Brisbane—whether you’re a plumber in Coorparoo or a law firm in the CBD—you’ve probably looked at your monthly marketing report and thought, "This looks great, but why doesn't my bank account feel any different?"
You see a list of sales or enquiries attributed to your ads, and the numbers look solid. But here is the hard truth most agencies won't tell you: A huge chunk of those people were going to call you anyway.
In the marketing world, we call the solution to this problem "incrementality testing." But you don't need to worry about the name. You just need to know if the money you're handing over to Google or Facebook is actually creating new business, or if you’re just paying a commission on customers who already knew your name.
Most Brisbane business owners are throwing away 20% to 40% of their ad budget on people who were already convinced. This article is about how to stop that leak and make sure every dollar you spend results in a phone call that wouldn't have happened otherwise.
The Common Mistake: Taking Credit for Everything
Imagine you own a bakery in Paddington. A regular customer who comes in every Saturday morning sees your Facebook ad while scrolling in bed. They click it, see a picture of a croissant, and then drive down to buy their usual loaf of sourdough.
Facebook will tell you that the ad "converted" that customer. It will claim credit for the sale. But did the ad cause the sale? No. That customer was coming in regardless.
When you don't test for this, you end up over-investing in ads that look like they are performing miracles, while your actual business growth stays flat. You’re essentially paying a "tax" on your existing reputation.
Why Your Reports Are Lying to You
Digital platforms are designed to make themselves look good. They use a system that counts a "win" whenever someone sees an ad and then buys, regardless of whether the ad was the reason for the purchase. This is why you need to see exactly what’s making money rather than just trusting the total number at the bottom of a spreadsheet.
If you want to grow, you need to know which ads are bringing in the stranger from Chermside who had never heard of you, not just the loyal customer from down the street.
Mistake #1: Bidding on Your Own Business Name
This is the most common way Brisbane businesses waste money. If someone searches for "Jim’s Plumbing Brisbane" and you are Jim, you should show up at the top of the organic (free) results.
If you are also paying for an ad to show up for your own name, you are paying Google for a click you would have gotten for free.
The Exception: The only time this makes sense is if a competitor is "poaching" your name by bidding on it. If "Bob’s Plumbing" shows up when someone searches for you, then yes, you might need to protect your turf. But if nobody else is bidding on your name, turn those ads off. You'll see your ad spend drop, but your phone calls will stay exactly the same. That’s money straight back into your pocket.
Mistake #2: Retargeting People Who Just Bought
We’ve all experienced this. You buy a pair of boots online, and for the next three weeks, ads for those exact boots follow you around the internet.
For a small business, this is a massive drain on resources. If a customer just booked a termite inspection with you, they don't need to see your ads for the next month. They’ve already spent their money.
I’ve seen Brisbane service businesses spend hundreds of dollars a month showing ads to people who are already on their books for next Tuesday. It’s a waste. You need to make sure your tracking is set up so that once someone becomes a customer, the ads stop immediately. If you aren't sure if your site is doing this correctly, you should fix your website tracking before you spend another cent on retargeting.
How to Actually Test What’s Working (The Simple Way)
You don't need a degree in statistics to do this. You just need to be willing to experiment. Here are three ways to see if your marketing is actually "incremental" (meaning it’s adding new value).
1. The "Switch Off" Test
This is the simplest and bravest way to test. Pick a specific area—say, you’re a landscaper and you’re running ads specifically targeting the Western Suburbs.
Turn the ads off for two weeks in that specific area.
Did your enquiries from Indooroopilly and Kenmore drop significantly? Or did they stay roughly the same?
If they dropped by 50%, you know those ads are doing heavy lifting. If they didn't move, or only dropped by 5%, those ads weren't doing anything but eating your cash. I’ve suggested this to mates running shops in Fortitude Valley, and they were terrified to try it. When they finally did, they realised half their Instagram spend was doing absolutely nothing for their foot traffic.
2. The Geographic Split
If you service the whole of Brisbane, split your marketing into two zones.
Zone A (The Test): Run your ads as usual. Zone B (The Control): Turn off one specific type of ad (like Facebook video ads).
Compare the number of new leads from Zone A versus Zone B over a month. This tells you the real-world impact of that specific ad type. It's much more reliable than looking at a dashboard that says you got "10,000 impressions."
3. The New Customer Coupon
Use a specific offer that is only available through your ads. Don't put it on your homepage. Don't tell your regulars about it.
If you’re a mechanic in Geebung, offer a "First-time customer $50 discount" only in the ad. If 20 people come in using that code, you know for a fact that those 20 sales were caused by the ad. If you get 100 "clicks" but only 2 people use the code, your ads are reaching the wrong people or people who don't care about your offer.
Mistake #3: Trusting "Last Click" Logic
Most business owners look at their results and think the last thing a person did before calling was the only thing that mattered.
Let’s say a homeowner in Carindale sees your van (Brand Awareness), then hears a radio ad (More Awareness), then sees a Facebook post (Interest), and finally searches your name on Google and clicks an ad to call you (The Sale).
Google Ads will claim 100% of that sale. But the van and the radio did the hard work of making them trust you. If you only look at the "last click," you might decide to stop washing your vans or cancel the radio, only to find that your Google Ads suddenly stop working.
To avoid this, you need to track which website clicks actually make money by looking at the whole journey, not just the final step.
The Cost of Not Testing
I’ve seen Brisbane businesses waste upwards of $2,000 a month because they were scared to look under the hood.
Think about what $24,000 a year could do for your business. That’s a new apprentice, a significant van upgrade, or a very nice holiday for you and the family.
Marketing isn't about spending the most money; it's about making sure the money you do spend comes back to you with friends. If you're spending $1,000 to get $1,100 in profit, you’re barely treading water. If you can cut out the waste and spend $600 to get that same $1,100, you’ve just significantly increased your margins.
How Long Until You See Results?
This isn't an overnight fix. If you run a "Switch Off" test, you need at least 2 to 4 weeks to see the trend. Why? Because people have long memories. Someone might have seen your ad last week and only gets around to calling you today.
If you turn everything off for 24 hours and nothing changes, that doesn't prove anything. You need to give it enough time for the "echo" of your previous marketing to fade away.
What Should You Do First?
If you’re feeling overwhelmed, start here:
1. Check your Brand Ads: Go into your Google Ads account. Are you spending money on your own business name? If so, look at who else is showing up there. If it's just you, try pausing that campaign for a week. 2. Look at your "New vs Returning" customers: If 90% of your sales are coming from people who have bought from you before, but your ads are supposedly bringing in heaps of leads, something is wrong. Your ads are just capturing your existing fans. 3. Ask the question: Next time you talk to your marketing person or agency, don't ask "How many clicks did we get?" Ask, "How many of these customers would have found us if we didn't run these ads?" A good partner will be happy to help you find the answer. A bad one will get defensive.
Summary: Stop Being a Vending Machine for Big Tech
Google and Meta are some of the richest companies in the world for a reason—they are very good at taking your money. They make it very easy to spend and very difficult to see if that spending is actually growing your business or just maintaining the status quo.
Real growth comes from finding new customers. Testing for incrementality is just a fancy way of saying "make sure your ads are actually doing their job."
At Local Marketing Group, we hate seeing Brisbane business owners get taken for a ride by flashy reports that don't translate to real-world profit. We focus on the numbers that actually matter: your phone ringing and your calendar filling up with new work.
If you're tired of guessing which parts of your marketing are working and which are a waste of space, we can help you get the clarity you need.
Ready to stop wasting cash and start growing? Contact us at Local Marketing Group and let’s look at what’s actually making you money.